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Posted on 25/03/2026
Hi.
Since our update on 11 March, the situation has evolved (read the update from 11 March here). Oil prices have fallen back a little - but freight prices don't automatically go down with them.
Here is the status as we know it today on 25 March 2026.
The situation in brief
The Strait of Hormuz remains volatile and diplomatic signals are changing day by day. The situation can change rapidly in either direction - towards de-escalation or escalation.
This means that the freight market is still characterised by high surcharges, limited capacity and high uncertainty about transition times.
Let's review an updated status of the three modes of transport.
Ocean freight - Western shipping companies are still bypassing
Western operators continue to avoid Hormuz and reroute via the Cape of Good Hope. This adds 10-14 days to the transit time - and more than 150 container ships are still anchored in the Strait of Hormuz.
What you can expect:
The war risk surcharge is $2,000-3,300 per container. Quotes you obtained three to four weeks ago don't necessarily reflect what you'll pay today.
Air freight - capacity is still under pressure
Global air freight capacity has decreased by approximately nine per cent. Between Europe and Asia, there are really only two viable corridors left. This puts pressure on prices and offers less flexibility if something changes quickly.
What you can expect:
Increased rates and limited capacity. Book early - and have an alternative plan ready, such as sea-air combinations if you're shipping time-sensitive goods.
Road transport - oil prices have dropped but surcharges are still high
Brent crude was at $103.67/barrel yesterday - down from its peak of $119 on 19 March, but still about 43% above the 2 March level. Most carriers update the oil surcharge weekly now, so you may experience ongoing changes in your freight costs.
Keep in mind: As we've shown before, some carriers calculate fuel surcharges on top of other surcharges - so the actual increase may be larger than it appears at first glance.
In the coming weeks, we will send you a graphical overview of the oil development.
Our recommendations for you
Oil prices have started to fall as a result of the diplomatic signals - but freight prices react with a delay. Right now, it's important to hold your tongue and act on what you can control.
1. Wait to lock spot rates until after Friday 27 March
Trump has extended his political deadline to Friday - and depending on the outcome, freight rates could move quickly in either direction. If Hormuz opens, rates are expected to fall. It may therefore be worthwhile to wait and see.
2. Require documentation on all new supplements
BAF, EBS, war risk allowance - not all are contractually eligible on your route. Check your agreements and ask about it if you're unsure.
3. Review your freight agreements
What does the force majeure clause cover? Is your carrier entitled to charge war-related surcharges? It's worth clarifying now.
4. Benchmark alternative carriers
The spot market moves fast. Your usual carrier may not necessarily be the cheapest or most available for the next four weeks. Reconcile internally what's more important - price or reliability of supply.
5. Keep an eye on air freight capacity
Critical shipments by air should be booked as early as possible. Have an alternative plan in place - especially if you're shipping time-sensitive items by air.
That was the status as we know it today.
We are following the situation closely and will post a new update if there are any significant changes. Let us know if you have any questions or need support - we're here for you 🙂
Sincerely yours
André Lundberg
CEO & Co-Founder